El Euríbor ha dejado de bajar.. Justo cuando se cumplen un par de años de su entrada en terreno negativo, el indicador más utilizado en las hipotecas españolas ha dicho adiós a enero en el -0,189 por ciento, tan solo un tanto sobre el -0,190 por ciento de diciembre, mas lo bastante para romper una tendencia de dieciseis meses cayendo y marcando nuevos mínimos históricos.
Todavía de esta forma, como el Euríbor cerró en el primer mes del año y julio de dos mil diecisiete más alto, esta nueva cifra sí trae ahorro en las hipotecas. En el caso de revisión semestral, la hipoteca se abarata lo que viene siendo frecuente en las revisiones de los últimos dos años: una media de dos euros por mes, que son doce euros hasta julio. Si la revisión es anual, la cuota bajará una media de cinco euros mensuales, que van a ser sesenta euros hasta enero del próximo año.
El Euríbor ha roto de esta forma una ráfaga histórica, si bien sigue en negativo, donde parece que todavía seguirá todo este año, mientras que sigue dando una alegría tras otra al bolsillo de millones de hogares con las mejores hipotecas.
Esta muy, muy ligera subida se veía venir. A inicios de enero el Euríbor comenzó a cotizar un tanto sobre el Euríbor de diciembre. Es lo que hizo augurar que se terminaba la buena ráfaga de caídas sin cuartel, puesto que frecuentemente el Euríbor cotizaba más bajo los primeros días del mes siguiente al cierre.
Mas no está todo perdido. Esta muy, muy pequeña subida no quiere decir que el Euríbor comience a crecer sin parar. Para hablar de tendencia firme, ha de acrecentar al menos a lo largo de cuatro meses seguidos. Y de momento, cuando menos con la última cotización, no parece que vaya a ser de esta manera, puesto que ha comenzado el mes bajo lo que ha terminado enero, signo -en teoría- de que en el mes de febrero podría cerrar bajo enero y no por encima. Mas todavía no hay nada seguro.
Sí que se espera, que en algún instante del año vigente el Euríbor comience a subir y no pare, si bien sea de forma muy lenta y gradual. Pero todavía no se sabe si eso va a ser ahora o bien más adelante. Hay que ver de qué manera cierra febrero, marzo y abril.
El pronóstico es, que llegue a positivo nuevamente en dos mil diecinueve, año en que se espera que no avance alén del 0,30 por ciento. Mas es una previsión en un largo plazo y la experiencia nos ha probado que las previsiones con respecto al Euríbor acostumbran a retrasarse, con lo que posiblemente tarde más tiempo en subir a ese nivel. En verdad se esperaba que llegase a positivo a fines de dos mil diecisiete o bien principios de dos mil dieciocho, y la realidad ha sido que en el último mes del año firmó un nuevo mínimo histórico. Si es el último o bien no, lo vamos a saber en los próximos meses.
Conque, al lado de las previsiones de especialistas y economistas, que como digo acostumbran a retrasarse, parece que el Euríbor no va moverse mucho este año y si lo hace va a ser poquísimo. El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) sostendrá en dos mil dieciocho las clases de interés en el 0 por ciento. Eso, teóricamente, anclará el Euríbor al terreno negativo. Y si ya en dos mil diecinueve los sube al 0,25 por ciento, podemos aguardar que el Euríbor comience a acrecentar de manera que se note un tanto más.
Goza mientras que puedas de estas fantásticas cuotas que tenemos ahora, las más bajas que nunca hemos pagado y las más económicas que seguramente volvamos a abonar en todo lo que nos queda de hipoteca.
Fuente: fercogestion.com/es/
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